With the 25-basis point cut in the target for the federal funds rate on December 10, the Fed has lowered this target rate a cumulative 175 basis points in fifteen months. Over this time, inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2 percent objective while the unemployment rate moved up from 4.2 percent in August … Continue reading Stubborn Disinflation
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Is The Time Right for Another Rate Cut?
The release of the CPI data for September was greeted warmly by financial markets. The 0.3 percent increase in the headline CPI and the 0.2 percent increase in the core CPI were in line with expectations. Nonetheless, these data were seen as providing sufficient cover for another rate cut by the Fed, especially when combined … Continue reading Is The Time Right for Another Rate Cut?
Momentum Continues
Crosscurrents are affecting the U.S. economy. Uncertainty about U.S. economic policy (shown in the chart below) remains exceptionally high. This uncertainty reflects the vicissitudes of tariff policy and worries about Fed independence. inducing some caution on the part of business and consumer spenders. Conversely, prospective returns on business investment are getting a boost from broad-based … Continue reading Momentum Continues
Inflation: Time for the Victory Lap?
The CPI release for July fell in line with expectations and was greeted enthusiastically by market participants, propelling stock prices to a new high. Moreover, expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in mid-September, which were heightened earlier in the month by a disappointing jobs report for July, rose further. The headline CPI increased … Continue reading Inflation: Time for the Victory Lap?
The Tough Job Ahead for the Fed
The Fed’s job of achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability has not gotten any easier of late. Tariff policy and intensified criticism of the Fed from the Administration is adding to policy uncertainty which, as shown in the chart below, is rivaling the periods of the financial crisis and the COVID … Continue reading The Tough Job Ahead for the Fed
The Fed’s Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Seldom has the Fed faced such a challenge. The impact of tariffs will be pushing the economy away from achieving the Fed’s dual mandate—maximum employment and stable prices—at a time when the labor market has been near maximum employment and inflation has been running above the 2 percent target. Moreover, the Fed is getting intense … Continue reading The Fed’s Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Despite the Worries, No Recession Is Imminent
The release of the 0.5 percent drop in real GDP in the first quarter of this year amplified concerns about the economy sliding into a recession. While data show clearly that the economy slowed in the first quarter, it seems unlikely that GDP actually fell. The scurry to beat tariffs by importing goods ahead of … Continue reading Despite the Worries, No Recession Is Imminent
Economic Storm Clouds
Uncertainty over economic policy has moved to levels reached during the financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 shock of 2020. Policy uncertainty is shown in the chart below by the index of economic policy uncertainty. The principal driver of this surge in uncertainty has been the tariff war. More recently, though, the growing tension … Continue reading Economic Storm Clouds
Recent Market Turmoil and Fed Policy?
With investors’ nerves fraying, there has been a sell-off in the stock market and a flight to safety in Treasury securities. The chart below shows that the S&P 500 index of share prices has fallen 3-1/2 percent from the end of 2024, erasing $1.3 trillion of household wealth. Market analysts have attributed the turmoil in … Continue reading Recent Market Turmoil and Fed Policy?
Will the Fed’s Next Rate Move Be Up or Down?
The Fed announced in late January that it was standing pat on its target for the federal funds rate, following three consecutive rate cuts amounting to 100 basis points. The chart below shows the yield on the two-year Treasury note which can be thought of as expectations of market participants of the average federal funds … Continue reading Will the Fed’s Next Rate Move Be Up or Down?
Thomas D. Simpson, PH.D. 