The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was greeted with relief. Headline inflation slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.9 percent two months earlier while core inflation (with volatile food and energy prices removed) slowed to only 0.1 percent in August. The moderating of inflation is illustrated in the table below. Note that the increase in … Continue reading Has the Inflation Dragon Been Slayed?
The June establishment survey jobs report showed gains of 850 thousand new jobs, following increases averaging half that amount over the previous two months. It was hailed as good news. Furthermore, new claims for unemployment insurance have been declining over recent weeks—more good news. We should note, however, that 190 thousand of the 850 thousand … Continue reading The Economy: Lots of Demand, Not So Much Supply
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARYv4j_4yy0 In this podcast Tom Glatt, Jr. and Matt Griffiths (of Glatt Consulting Group) dive into economics, in particular what to expect in terms of inflation and interest rates. Dr. Thomas Simpson joins as a special guest. Dr. Simpson spent most of his career at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in … Continue reading Podcast – Live With Glatt Consulting Group, Inc.
Ideology: A manner or the content of thinking characteristic of an individual, group, or culture The integrated assertions, theories and aims that constitute a sociopolitical programA systematic body of concepts especially about human life or cultureVisionary theorizing Faith: Allegiance to duty or a person Fidelity to one's promisesSincerity of intentions acted in good faithBelief and trust in and … Continue reading Ideology Versus Faith
The era of ultra-low interest rates is upon us and is likely to remain for a good while (see Buoying the Economy: An Era of Ultra-Low Interest Rates, July 13. 2020 and The Fed’s New Game Plan: Radical?, August 31, 2020). The Fed has committed to keeping its target for the policy interest rate—the overnight … Continue reading The Impact of Ultra-Low Interest Rates
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY: RECOVERING FROM THE COVID-19 SHOCKDownload Presentation
The start of the year is a good time to take stock of where the economy has been and where it is headed. The COVID-19 shock in early 2020 led to the sharpest contraction in output on record. The table below shows that real GDP plunged 9 percent in the second quarter (at a quarterly, … Continue reading Taking Stock of the Economic Recovery
Like the impending death of Mark Twain, the recent commentary suggesting that this economic expansion has lost its life is considerably overstated. Much has been said about the uptick in new claims for unemployment insurance, shown in the chart below, and its link to the restoration of restrictions by many governments in response to the … Continue reading The Demise of This Expansion is Greatly Exaggerated
Many analysts are worried about the recovery losing steam, especially in the face of renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 and the absence of more fiscal stimulus. Yet the unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in October, down nearly 8 percentage points from its peak six months earlier in April. To put this information in perspective, it … Continue reading Has the Recovery Topped Out?