What’s Ahead for the Fed’s Inflation Fight?

On June 15, the Fed stepped up its anti-inflation effort, raising the target for the federal funds by 75 basis points for the first time in nearly three decades. Larger than expected increases in consumer prices and higher expectations of inflation by consumers were given as reasons for the unusual policy action by the Fed. … Continue reading What’s Ahead for the Fed’s Inflation Fight?

Inflation: When Will it Slow?

Just as trees don’t grow to the sky, the rate of inflation will stop rising. The question is when? The chart below shows twelve-month percent changes in the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer price inflation—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The headline index in blue rose 6.4 percent in February, the largest twelve-month increase in … Continue reading Inflation: When Will it Slow?

How Does the Ukraine War Affect the Outlook?

You have almost certainly discovered that prices at the pump have jumped over recent days. Unfortunately, pump prices are still headed higher. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the global oil market and pushed energy prices higher. This impact is coming at a time when inflation is running at the fastest pace in four … Continue reading How Does the Ukraine War Affect the Outlook?