Author: Dr. Thomas D. Simpson

The current debt ceiling—at $33.4 trillion—is expected to be reached around June 1. Once the ceiling is reached, the Treasury has a few gimmicks that it can use, such as delaying payments to the pension fund for federal employees, to postpone hard choices regarding which claims on the Treasury are to be paid. However, once … Continue reading The Debt Ceiling Confrontation: Is it Necessary?

At its May 3 meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the target for the federal funds rate ¼ percent and signaled that it would be watching incoming data to determine whether any further increases would be needed to place inflation on a downward trajectory toward the Fed’s 2 percent target. As shown in the chart … Continue reading Has Fed Tightening Come to an End?

The high-profile closing of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9 and the subsequent closing of Signature Bank, the rescue package for First Republic, and the resolution of Credit Suisse have raised concerns about the health of regional commercial banks in the United States and certain big foreign names. Some have claimed that we are … Continue reading Recent Banking Disturbances and Implications for Fed Policy: What You Need to Know

The most recent consumer price data (for January) were a disappointment. As shown in the chart below, headline inflation (the blue line) picked up largely owing to a swing in energy prices. However, even when volatile energy and food prices are removed, core inflation (the red line) ticked higher, raising doubts about whether underlying inflation … Continue reading Stubborn Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy 

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target for the federal funds rate ¼ percentage point on February 1 and suggested that a couple more similar-sized increases will be forthcoming. Fed policymakers further indicated that they will be assessing the lagged effects of previous rate increases and whether those effects are unfolding in line with … Continue reading Fed Policy: The Importance of Vigilance

The decisions facing the Fed are getting more difficult. A year ago, persistently high inflation readings made it clear that the Fed was way behind the curve in getting control of inflation and there was consensus that aggressive tightening was needed. In response, as shown in the chart below, the Fed raised its target for … Continue reading The Fed’s Upcoming Judgment Calls

The Fed’s fight against inflation proceeded through 2022. During the year, the Fed raised its target for the federal funds rate seven times, lifting the target from 0 percent to 4.25 percent (these interest rates are at the lower ends of a ¼ percent range). In its most recent projections in mid-December, the Fed projected … Continue reading The Fight Against Inflation: Where Are We Now?

Recent labor market and inflation data and comments from Fed officials have done little to clarify the trajectory of Fed interest rate policy. Indeed, the rift between the views of market participants and Fed officials appears to have widened. Market participants read the consumer price data for November, released at the time of the Fed’s … Continue reading The Inflation Battle: Is the Fed Close to the Finish Line?

On September 23, the new prime minister of the United Kingdom, Liz Truss, surprised financial markets by announcing a deficit-expanding fiscal package that included large tax cuts and energy subsidies. This announcement triggered concerns by market participants that Britain may be moving onto a path that would result in it being unable to service its … Continue reading The U.K.’s Recent Budget Turmoil: The Canary in the Coal Mine

The October CPI data released on November 10 were greeted enthusiastically by financial market participants. Not only were the headline and core price increases the smallest in months, but both measures came in well below expectations. Does this mean that the back of consumer price inflation has finally been broken and that the Fed can … Continue reading Inflation in the Rear View Mirror?