The release of CPI for January again dashed optimism for continued disinflation and near-term rate declines by the Fed. Now, market participants foresee the Fed’s first cut in rates coming around mid-year instead of the spring and the cumulative cut in rates of 75 to 100 basis points in 2024 (100 basis points equal one … Continue reading The Remaining Inflation Problem
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Further Disinflation?
Economic growth over the second half of 2023 was brisk. Real GDP expanded at a 4 percent annual rate over the second half of 2023, up from a 2 percent rate in the first half and only ¾ percent over all of 2022. Moreover, initial claims for unemployment insurance thus far in January are not … Continue reading Further Disinflation?
On the Other Hand, The Inflation Battle Has Not Yet Been Won
A widespread view has developed that the Fed has slayed the inflation beast and that declines in interest rates are just around the corner. Participants in the federal funds futures market have priced in declines in the target for the federal funds rate starting next spring and continuing through the rest of the year. They … Continue reading On the Other Hand, The Inflation Battle Has Not Yet Been Won
There’s Still Momentum in the Economy
The pickup in growth of real GDP to nearly 5 percent in the third quarter, illustrated in the chart below, got a lot of attention. This growth was especially notable since many forecasters had come to expect a recession in the latter part of this year, largely brought on by the Fed's policy tightening measures … Continue reading There’s Still Momentum in the Economy
The Rise in Long-Term Rates: What Does it Mean for the Fed?
The focus of attention lately has been on the jump in long-term interest rates and whether this jump is doing the work of the Fed. What is behind the increase in long-term rates, and what does it mean for the Fed? It is helpful to note that the long-term Treasury benchmark interest rate—most commonly the … Continue reading The Rise in Long-Term Rates: What Does it Mean for the Fed?
Obstacles to a Soft Landing
A growing chorus of analysts has been reading recent economic news–especially consumer prices--to be suggesting that the economy is on a glide path to a soft landing—inflation returning to the pre-pandemic pace while avoiding a recession. This soft-landing scenario implies that little or no further Fed tightening will be needed. Indeed, federal funds futures prices … Continue reading Obstacles to a Soft Landing
Can This Really Be a Soft Landing?
The July labor market and consumer price reports were met with a sigh of relief. A reduced pace of labor market hiring and deceleration in the CPI—both headline and core measures—were viewed as pointing to a “soft landing”— a return to low (2 percent) inflation without a recession. Does a careful assessment of recent data … Continue reading Can This Really Be a Soft Landing?
Inflation News: Bright Spot or Head Fake?
Has the Back of Inflation Been Broken? CPI inflation data for June came in below expectations, prompting a rally in financial markets and raising hope that inflation can be tamed without undergoing a recession—a so-called soft landing. The chart below shows that both headline (the blue line) and core CPI prices (the red line) posted … Continue reading Inflation News: Bright Spot or Head Fake?
Is it Time for the Fed’s Pause to End?
The Issue: At its mid-June FOMC meeting, the Fed announced that it was holding its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5 to 5-1/4 percent following ten consecutive increases that accumulated to 5 percentage points. The Fed reasoned that it wanted time to assess the impact of previous rate increases and the extent … Continue reading Is it Time for the Fed’s Pause to End?
Time for the Fed to Pause?
The issue: The Fed has sent out signals that it is inclined to pause rate hikes at its upcoming June meeting after successive increases over the past ten FOMC meetings dating back to March 2022 (see chart below). The cumulative increase in the target for the federal funds rate has been 500 basis points (100 … Continue reading Time for the Fed to Pause?
Thomas D. Simpson, PH.D. 