Isn’t the stock market supposed to be a barometer of the economy? Yet, while the market climbs, hasn’t news on jobs and the economy been mixed? New claims for unemployment insurance seem stalled at a high level and many businesses are struggling, if not failing. Isn’t there a disconnect? Could the market be headed for … Continue reading What’s the Market Telling Us?
The Economy: How Are Things Looking Now?
Analysts seem divided on where the economic recovery from the COVID shock stands. Some see recent news to be pointing to a still-vigorous expansion—a “V”-shaped recovery. But others read the news, including new COVID outbreaks, to be suggesting that the expansion is stalling out or even receding—that is, a “W” is unfolding. Putting the various … Continue reading The Economy: How Are Things Looking Now?
The Economy: Rolling On
Headlines have stressed that payroll employment growth slowed again in August and that the decline in new claims for unemployment insurance stalled out. Does that mean that the economic recovery that began in the spring is fizzling out? Or is the economy rolling on? It is worth noting that that the August gain in employment … Continue reading The Economy: Rolling On
The Fed’s New Game Plan: Radical?
On August 27, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced an important change to the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. The announcement followed a lengthy and thorough review of the Fed’s policy framework and its strategy for achieving its statutory goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The review was prompted by significant changes in the economic … Continue reading The Fed’s New Game Plan: Radical?
The Economy: Sorting Through the Pluses and Minuses
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jump and universities shut down campuses and return to all on-line classes—news pointing to a setback for the economy. In contrast, existing home sales surge and the stock market moves into record territory—news pointing to an ongoing rebound from one of the sharpest declines in history. What does it all … Continue reading The Economy: Sorting Through the Pluses and Minuses
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There: How Will the Federal Debt Problem Get Resolved?
“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you are talking about real money.” Attributed to Senator Everett Dirksen (Illinois) One wonders how Senator Dirksen might react to the current federal budget outlook, given the nearly $3 trillion of red ink that has been spilled so far in the 2020 fiscal year and the wrangling … Continue reading A Trillion Here, a Trillion There: How Will the Federal Debt Problem Get Resolved?
The Economy: Any Spring in its Step?
The resurgence of COVID-19 and its impact on the reopening of businesses has gotten a lot of attention lately. Moreover, the news on initial claims for unemployment insurance staying in the 1.4 million per week range has generated concerns that the recovery has stalled out. Meanwhile, we have gotten a lot of information on the … Continue reading The Economy: Any Spring in its Step?
The Recovery: Is The Glass Mostly Full or Mostly Empty?
The recent news on the COVID-19 crisis has been mostly negative, suggesting that the recovery may be experiencing a major setback (the glass is mostly empty). However, a variety of reports on the economy recently have pointed to unexpected vigor (it’s mostly full). Granted, many of these reports are from June, before the recent COVID … Continue reading The Recovery: Is The Glass Mostly Full or Mostly Empty?
Buoying the Market: An Era of Ultra-Low Interest Rates
Many have puzzled over the rebound in the stock market during this period of COVID-19 struggles. The blue-chip S&P 500 stock price index is only 6 percent below its mid-February peak, having recovered more than 80 percent of its COVID-related losses. Moreover, the Nasdaq index—a barometer of the tech sector—has soared to new highs. Has … Continue reading Buoying the Market: An Era of Ultra-Low Interest Rates
Can You Spare a Dime? Have Coins Gone the Way of Toilet Paper?
Perhaps you bought something recently and were told that the merchant could not make change because of a shortage of coins. The merchant may have been told by his or her bank that the bank has imposed a limit on the coins that it will dispense to its business customers because it has been subjected … Continue reading Can You Spare a Dime? Have Coins Gone the Way of Toilet Paper?
Thomas D. Simpson, PH.D. 